UMD News Releases

Duluth, MN — A faculty member new to University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD), Byron Steinman, has already distinguished himself as the lead author of a research paper published by Science Magazine. Steinman is an assistant professor of Geological Sciences with the Large Lakes Observatory and the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. His article describes a new approach to analyzing global climate data that may have far-reaching implications.

The paper entitled, “Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Oscillations and Northern Hemisphere Temperatures” details a new methodology for studying the climate system.

It has long been understood the earth experiences natural fluctuations in temperatures, due to a wide range of internal factors like changes in circulation of the atmosphere and oceans. By analyzing computer models that simulate the earth’s climate over time, Steinman and his fellow researchers have outlined an approach to pinpoint this internal variability. By doing so, they help to broaden the understanding of how outside forces like greenhouse gases, solar fluctuations and volcanic eruptions affect the climate.

“The question of how to isolate internal variability has been posed by a lot of people. It’s been an ongoing area of research,” said Steinman. “My fellow researchers and I saw the opportunity to address this important scientific question and take it one step further using the latest climate model simulations and the most recently acquired observational data.”

Steinman added, “This has important implications for understanding the relative roles of internal variability and external forcing of climate. For example, we can learn more about the causes of exceptional recent drought in the Sahel region of Africa or the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades. Are these trends being driven by natural, internal oscillations? Are they being driven by external forces? Based on our research, it appears as though these changes are being strongly influenced by external forces and, in particular, the increase in greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning.”

Steinman started with UMD’s Swenson College of Science and Engineering (SCSE) in the fall of 2014 and his research began in 2013. He is the lead author on the piece but worked closely with co-author Michael E. Mann, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University (PSU) and Sonya Miller, a PSU Meteorology coder and analyst. Mann is author of two books on climate change and in 2013 was listed as one of the world’s fifty most influential people by Bloomberg News. Mann’s career has focused on studying climate variability and Steinman gives much credit to Mann for helping him learn the skills necessary to make this advance.

“This is the by far the hardest I’ve worked on a paper and I was very fortunate to work with Mike and Sonya on this. Without Mike, this project would not have happened,” said Steinman.

Mann, in turn, credits Steinman, “Without Byron’s scientific innovation and tenacity, we couldn’t have completed this analysis”.

According to Steinman, their conclusions have the potential to generate a lot of further study. “We’re moving forward with some ideas, concepts and questions that people have been thinking about for years,” said Steinman. “And I’m sure this method will be built upon by other researchers. It will be refined and used to better understand our climate system and therefore, what we can expect in the future.”

This is Steinman’s second semester teaching at UMD. He estimates the study took hundreds of hours to complete, but it was well worth the effort. “I think this is the kind of paper that is going to make its way into the discourse about the current status of the climate system,” said Steinman. “Over the next few years, I would expect some of our findings to be challenged in the way that all good science is challenged. That’s the way science works, it’s a healthy give-and-take and I welcome it.”

Science Magazine is a weekly on-line and print publication. Steinman’s research will be published in the Friday, February 27 edition at http://www.sciencemag.org/.

UMD’s SCSE enrolled 3,250 students in 2014. The College is home to ten departments and connects students with hands-on research opportunities through its collaboration with multiple research institutions. To learn more about SCSE visit: http://www.d.umn.edu/scse/.